How Much Will U.S. Medicine Change in the Decade Ahead?

Abstract

A New York University Honors Program Lecture During the past 12 years health care services have been increasingly used by low-income families, largely as a consequence of infusion of more funds into the health care system. The number of persons employed in health care has gone up along with an expanded governmental role. Present governmental concerns are focused on cost and the relation of public attitudes to needs for, and costs of, a system of national health insurance. In the near future, medical services are not likely to be expanded, and various costly services may be contracted. The number of physicians will go up but the fraction in solo practice will decline. Patterns of physician maldistribution are not likely to be changed substantially. Costs will continue to go up, and government and other third-party payers will strive to control them. A comprehensive form of national health insurance will not come soon, and the public will become increasingly aware of the limits to which health care can improve their lives.