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Risk Prediction Versus Diagnosis: Preserving Clinical Nuance in a Binary World
- Andrew J. Vickers, PhD;
- Ethan Basch, MD; and
- Michael Kattan, PhD
- From Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, NY 10021, and Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, OH 44195.
IN RESPONSE:
Dr. Warner, Dr. Djulbegovic, and Dr. Patrick each point to practical problems with a prediction approach. Dr. Warner concurs with a point we made in our article, which is that use of discrete categories (disease vs. no disease) simplifies clinical management and communication. We also agree with him that changes in medical education are needed to help physicians understand and communicate the results of risk prediction. A point of disagreement is that physicians' and patients' poor understanding of probabilities is a problem specific …
