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Two Risk-Scoring Systems for Predicting Incident Diabetes Mellitus in U.S. Adults Age 45 to 64 Years
- Henry S. Kahn, MD;
- Yiling J. Cheng, MD, PhD;
- Theodore J. Thompson, MS;
- Giuseppina Imperatore, MD, PhD; and
- Edward W. Gregg, PhD
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Figure 1. Study flow diagram.ARIC = Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities.
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Figure 2. Scoring sheet for the basic diabetes prediction model.The model does not require blood analysis data. Developed from a derivation sample of 9587 persons age 45 to 64 years who did not have diabetes at baseline.
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Figure 3. Scoring sheet for the enhanced diabetes prediction model.The model includes data from a fasting blood sample. Developed from a derivation sample of 9587 persons age 45 to 64 years who did not have diabetes at baseline. HDL = high-density lipoprotein.
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Figure 4. Receiver-operating characteristic curves generated from testing a risk-scoring system in an independent validation sample of 3142 adults from the ARIC Study.The ARIC-derived basic system is compared with the DESIR clinical diabetes risk score (20) (neither required a blood sample), and the ARIC-derived enhanced system is compared with the Framingham simple clinical model (21) (both required a fasting blood sample). ARIC = Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities; DESIR = Epidemiologic Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome.
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Figure 5. Estimated 10-year diabetes incidence (±SE) in the independent validation sample (n= 3142), by quintile of prediction scores in the basic or enhanced scoring system. -
Appendix Figure 1. Scoring sheet for the basic diabetes prediction model.See the Appendix for further information. The model does not require blood analysis data. Developed from the full derivation sample of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study: 12 729 persons age 45 to 64 years who did not have diabetes at baseline.
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Appendix Figure 2. Scoring sheet for the enhanced diabetes prediction model.See the Appendix for further information. The model includes data from a fasting blood sample. Developed from the full derivation sample of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study: 12 729 persons age 45 to 64 years who did not have diabetes at baseline. HDL = high-density lipoprotein.
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