Estimated Risks for Developing Obesity in the Framingham Heart Study
- Ramachandran S. Vasan, MD;
- Michael J. Pencina, PhD;
- Mark Cobain, PhD;
- Matthew S. Freiberg, MD; and
- Ralph B. D'Agostino, PhD
- From the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study, Framingham, and Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts; and Unilever Research, Colworth, Bedfordshire, United Kingdom.
Abstract
Background: The short- and long-term risks for developing overweight or obesity are unknown.
Objectives: To estimate the short-term, long-term, and lifetime risks for developing overweight or obesity in adults in the community.
Design: Prospective cohort study, 1971 to 2001.
Setting: Community-based study, Framingham, Massachusetts.
Participants: 4117 white participants (51.9% women) from the Framingham Heart Study.
Measurements: The short-term (4 years) and long-term (10 to 30 years) risks for ever becoming overweight or more (body mass index [BMI] ≥ 25 kg/m2) or obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) for men and women at 30, 40, and 50 years of age with a normal BMI (between 18.5 kg/m2 and 25.0 kg/m2).
Results: The observed 4-year rates of developing overweight varied from 14% to 19% in women and 26% to 30% in men. Four-year rates of developing obesity ranged from 5% to 7% in women and 7% to 9% in men. The long-term (30-year) risk estimates were similar for the 2 sexes generally; varied somewhat with age (in men, being lower for those 50 years of age); and, overall, exceeded 1 in 2 persons for overweight or more, 1 in 4 individuals for obesity, and 1 in 10 people for stage II obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2) across different age groups. The 30-year estimates correspond to the residual lifetime risk for overweight or more or obesity for participants 50 years of age.
Limitations: These findings may not be generalizable to other races or ethnicities.
Conclusions: The long-term risks for overweight or more or obesity exceeded 50% and 25%, respectively, indicating a large public health burden. These estimates suggest that the future burden of obesity-associated diseases may be substantial.
Article and Author Information
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Grant Support: In part by the National Institutes of Health and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute contract N01-HC-38038. Dr. Vasan was partly supported by National Institutes of Health and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute grant 2K24 HL 04334.
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Potential Financial Conflicts of Interest: Employment: M. Cobain (Unilever).
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Requests for Single Reprints: Ramachandran S. Vasan, MD, The Framingham Heart Study, 73 Mount Wayte Avenue, Suite 2, Framingham, MA 01702-5803; e-mail, vasan{at}bu.edu.
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Current Author Addresses: Dr. Vasan: The Framingham Heart Study, 73 Mount Wayte Avenue, Suite 2, Framingham, MA 01702-5803.
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Drs. Pencina and D'Agostino: Boston University, 111 Cummington Street, Boston, MA 02135.
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Dr. Cobain: Unilever Research, Colworth House, Sharnbrook, Bedforshire MK44 1LQ, United Kingdom.
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Dr. Freiberg: University of Pittsburgh and Epidemiology Center for Research on Health Care, 230 McKee Place, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213.
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Author Contributions: Conception and design: R.S. Vasan, M.J. Pencina, R.B. D'Agostino.
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Analysis and interpretation of the data: R.S. Vasan, M.J. Pencina, M. Cobain, M.S. Freiberg, R.B. D'Agostino.
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Drafting of the article: R.S. Vasan, M.J. Pencina, M.S. Freiberg.
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Critical revision of the article for important intellectual content: R.S. Vasan, M.J. Pencina, M. Cobain, M.S. Freiberg, R.B. D'Agostino.
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Final approval of the article: R.S. Vasan, M.J. Pencina, M. Cobain, M.S. Freiberg, R.B. D'Agostino.
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Statistical expertise: M.J. Pencina, R.B. D'Agostino.
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Obtaining of funding: R.S. Vasan, R.B. D'Agostino.
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Collection and assembly of data: R.B. D'Agostino.
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