Weighing the Evidence for Expanding Physician Supply

1. 

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   Figure 1. Data on changes in GDP are from the Bureau of Economic Analysis . Data on changes in private health expenditures are from Altman and Levitt and Strunk and Ginsberg . This analysis was previously described by Cooper and Getzen . Annual percentage changes in private health expenditures and in gross domestic product (GDP) 4 years previously.(29)(27)(30, 31)(28)
2. 

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   Figure 2. Physician supply from 1980 to 2000 is from Pasko and Smart for the American Medical Association and the American Osteopathic Association ; supply projections are from a previous report (Cooper and colleagues) . Trend projections of demand are presented for Cooper and colleagues, 2002 ; Cooper, 1995 ; the Council on Graduate Medical Education ( ), 2003 (corrected for gross domestic product and presumed unnecessary services) ; the Bureau of Labor Statistics ( ), 1982–2002 (alternate years) ; and Schwartz and colleagues, 1988 . Task-and-time projections of demand are presented for the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee ( ), 1981 ; COGME, 1994 ; the Bureau of Health Professions ( ), 1995 and 1996 ; and Weiner, 1994 . Projections of demand have been normalized by converting reported values to percentages and applying them to supply levels in the base year. Physician supply and demand projections.(65)(66)(9)(9)(67)COGME(12)BLS(68)(69)GMENAC(2)(5)BHPr(7, 8)(6)