In this issue, Cooper argues that the United States will have 200 000 fewer physicians than needed in 2020. Demographic and
economic trends could increase the demand for physician services, but his forecast contains too many uncertainties to serve
as the basis for taking immediate action. Several factors can have as yet unforeseeable effects on the demand for physician
services: a healthier aging population, changes in government policy, new technology, physician-induced demand for health
care, and changes in the price of health care.