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Cholesterol Reduction and Life Expectancy
A Model Incorporating Multiple Risk Factors
- WILLIAM C. TAYLOR, M.D.;
- THEODORE M. PASS, Ph.D.;
- DONALD S. SHEPARD, Ph.D.; and
- ANTHONY L. KOMAROFF, M.D.
Abstract
In deciding whether to undertake a dietary program to reduce serum cholesterol levels, a person must consider how much benefit to expect. We developed a model that assumes cholesterol reduction is effective and safe in reducing the risk for death from ischemic heart disease. In the model, we considered asymptomatic adults with total serum cholesterol levels between 180 and 300 mg/dL. We defined risk status on the basis of blood pressure, smoking habit, and high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol level. For persons aged 20 to 60 years who are at low risk, we calculate a gain in life expectancy of 3 days to 3 months from a lifelong program of cholesterol reduction. For persons who are at high risk, the calculated gain ranges from 18 days to 12 months. Knowledge of the magnitude of the calculated benefits in increased life expectancy afforded by cholesterol reduction can assist persons in making decisions about dietary change.
- age factors
- blood pressure
- cholestyramine
- coronary disease
- dietary cholesterol
- Framingham Study
- life expectancy
- Lipid Research Clinics Coronary Primary Prevention Trial
- lipoproteins, HDL cholesterol
- Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial
- risk
- serum cholesterol
- sex factors
- smoking
- theoretical models
Article and Author Information
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▸From the Divisions of General Medicine and Primary Care of the consolidated Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Hospital and Brigham and Women's Hospital; Harvard Medical School; Charles A. Dana Research Institute and Harvard-Thorndike Laboratory of Beth Israel Hospital; Institute for Health Research, Harvard University and the Harvard Community Health Plan; Health Services Research and Development Service, West Roxbury Veterans Administration Medical Center; Boston, Massachusetts.
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Grant support: by grants HS 02063, HS 04066, and HS 04325 to Brigham and Women's Hospital and Beth Israel Hospital, from the National Center for Health Services Research.
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▸Requests for reprints should be addressed to William C. Taylor, M.D.; Division of General Medicine and Primary Care, Department of Medicine, Beth Israel Hospital, 330 Brookline Avenue; Boston, MA 02215.
