Figure 4. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis using 1000 trials. This analysis simultaneously varies all parameters over the full range of plausible values. Each point represents the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio generated by one trial through the simulation. The median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $268 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained is shown (solid line), and, by definition, 50% of the trials fall on either side. Points below and to the right of each line represent trials that generated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below the specified threshold. For example, if a third-party payer was willing to pay $150 000 per QALY gained for coxib therapy, then only 4.3% of the patients in this simulation would fall within the budget. WTP = willingness-to-pay thresholds.

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