Figure 1. Truncated decision model. The base-case patient has chronic arthritis, is at average risk for ulcer complications, and is not taking concurrent aspirin. The clinician may either treat with naproxen, 500 mg twice daily, or with a coxib, once daily. The extended tree (A) is shared by the coxib arm, with the exception of switching to coxibs if ulcer complications develop. See text for details about individual strategies and for assumptions about downstream costs and effects (not represented in the figure). EGD = esophagogastroduodenoscopy; GI = gastrointestinal; NUD = nonulcer dyspepsia; PPI = proton-pump inhibitor.

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