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ARTICLE

Watchful Waiting with Periodic Liver Biopsy versus Immediate Empirical Therapy for Histologically Mild Chronic Hepatitis C: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

right arrow John B. Wong, MD, and Raymond S. Koff, MD

7 November 2000 | Volume 133 Issue 9 | Pages 665-675

Background: Not all patients with histologically mild chronic hepatitis C progress to cirrhosis.

Objective: To compare no antiviral treatment, periodic liver biopsy with subsequent antiviral treatment for moderate hepatitis or cirrhosis, and immediate antiviral therapy.

Design: Cost-effectiveness analysis.

Data Sources: Clinical trial data and published studies.

Target Population: Hepatitis C virus–infected patients with histologically mild hepatitis.

Time Horizon: Lifetime.

Perspective: Societal.

Intervention: Immediate combination antiviral treatment or biopsy every 3 years plus combination antiviral therapy for moderate hepatitis or cirrhosis.

Outcome Measures: Life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, and costs.

Results of Base-Case Analysis: Over 20 years, biopsy every 3 years with treatment of moderate hepatitis would avoid treatment in 50% of the cohort and would result in an 18% likelihood of cirrhosis compared with 16% for immediate treatment and 27% for no antiviral therapy. Immediate antiviral treatment should increase life expectancy by 1.0 quality-adjusted life-year compared with biopsy management. Over an average lifetime, biopsy management would lead to six liver biopsies costing $6200; immediate antiviral treatment would cost $5100 less than biopsy management because of savings related to biopsy and prevention of future hepatitis C–related morbidity. Immediate therapy was cost-effective compared with biopsy management and had a cost-effectiveness ratio of $7000 compared with no antiviral therapy.

Results of Sensitivity Analysis: When age, sex, genotype, and estimates of histologic progression or compliance with follow-up are varied, immediate therapy should result in an increase of at least 0.8 quality-adjusted life-year compared with biopsy management.

Conclusion: For histologically mild chronic hepatitis C, initial combination treatment compared with periodic liver biopsy should reduce the future risk for cirrhosis, prolong life, and be cost-effective.

Author and Article Information
space

for the International Hepatitis Interventional Therapy Group
From Tupper Research Institute, New England Medical Center, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, and UMass Memorial Health Care, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, Massachusetts.

Disclosure: Dr. Wong received research support from the Schering-Plough Research Institute for this study. Dr. Koff has research support from the Schering-Plough Research Institute for this and other clinical research studies, and he serves as a consultant to Schering-Plough Corp.

Grant Support: In part by Schering-Plough Corp., Kenilworth, New Jersey.

Requests for Single Reprints: John B. Wong, MD, New England Medical Center, 750 Washington Street, Box 302, Boston, MA 02111; e-mail, jwong{at}lifespan.org.

Current Author Addresses: Dr. Wong: New England Medical Center, 750 Washington Street, Box 302, Boston, MA 02111.

Dr. Koff: University of Massachusetts Memorial Health Care, Shaw Building, SH–143, 55 Lake Avenue North, Worcester, MA 01655.

Author Contributions: Conception and design: J.B. Wong, R.S. Koff.

Analysis and interpretation of the data: J.B. Wong.

Drafting of the article: J.B. Wong, R.S. Koff.

Critical revision of the article for important intellectual content: J.B. Wong, R.S. Koff.

Final approval of the article: J.B. Wong, R.S. Koff.

Statistical expertise: J.B. Wong.

Obtaining of funding: J.B. Wong.

Administrative, technical, or logistic support: J.B. Wong.

Collection and assembly of data: J.B. Wong.


Related articles in Annals:

Summaries for Patients
Watchful Waiting versus Immediate Treatment for Mild Hepatitis C
Annals 2000 133: S-5. [Full Text]  

Letters
Periodic Liver Biopsy for Mild Hepatitis C
Barry Kisloff
Annals 2001 135: 381. [Full Text]  

Letters
Periodic Liver Biopsy for Mild Hepatitis C
John B. Wong AND Raymond S. Koff
Annals 2001 135: 381-382. [Full Text]  



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