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7 November 2000 | Volume 133 Issue 9 | Pages 665-675
Background: Not all patients with histologically mild chronic hepatitis C progress to cirrhosis.
Objective: To compare no antiviral treatment, periodic liver biopsy with subsequent antiviral treatment for moderate hepatitis or cirrhosis, and immediate antiviral therapy.
Design: Cost-effectiveness analysis.
Data Sources: Clinical trial data and published studies.
Target Population: Hepatitis C virusinfected patients with histologically mild hepatitis.
Time Horizon: Lifetime.
Perspective: Societal.
Intervention: Immediate combination antiviral treatment or biopsy every 3 years plus combination antiviral therapy for moderate hepatitis or cirrhosis.
Outcome Measures: Life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy, and costs.
Results of Base-Case Analysis: Over 20 years, biopsy every 3 years with treatment of moderate hepatitis would avoid treatment in 50% of the cohort and would result in an 18% likelihood of cirrhosis compared with 16% for immediate treatment and 27% for no antiviral therapy. Immediate antiviral treatment should increase life expectancy by 1.0 quality-adjusted life-year compared with biopsy management. Over an average lifetime, biopsy management would lead to six liver biopsies costing $6200; immediate antiviral treatment would cost $5100 less than biopsy management because of savings related to biopsy and prevention of future hepatitis Crelated morbidity. Immediate therapy was cost-effective compared with biopsy management and had a cost-effectiveness ratio of $7000 compared with no antiviral therapy.
Results of Sensitivity Analysis: When age, sex, genotype, and estimates of histologic progression or compliance with follow-up are varied, immediate therapy should result in an increase of at least 0.8 quality-adjusted life-year compared with biopsy management.
Conclusion: For histologically mild chronic hepatitis C, initial combination treatment compared with periodic liver biopsy should reduce the future risk for cirrhosis, prolong life, and be cost-effective.
Author and Article Information
for the International Hepatitis Interventional Therapy Group
Disclosure: Dr. Wong received research support from the Schering-Plough Research Institute for this study. Dr. Koff has research support from the Schering-Plough Research Institute for this and other clinical research studies, and he serves as a consultant to Schering-Plough Corp.
Grant Support: In part by Schering-Plough Corp., Kenilworth, New Jersey.
Requests for Single Reprints: John B. Wong, MD, New England Medical Center, 750 Washington Street, Box 302, Boston, MA 02111; e-mail, jwong{at}lifespan.org.
Current Author Addresses: Dr. Wong: New England Medical Center, 750 Washington Street, Box 302, Boston, MA 02111.
Dr. Koff: University of Massachusetts Memorial Health Care, Shaw Building, SH143, 55 Lake Avenue North, Worcester, MA 01655.
Author Contributions: Conception and design: J.B. Wong, R.S. Koff.
Analysis and interpretation of the data: J.B. Wong.
Drafting of the article: J.B. Wong, R.S. Koff.
Critical revision of the article for important intellectual content: J.B. Wong, R.S. Koff.
Final approval of the article: J.B. Wong, R.S. Koff.
Statistical expertise: J.B. Wong.
Obtaining of funding: J.B. Wong.
Administrative, technical, or logistic support: J.B. Wong.
Collection and assembly of data: J.B. Wong. ARTICLE
Watchful Waiting with Periodic Liver Biopsy versus Immediate Empirical Therapy for Histologically Mild Chronic Hepatitis C: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
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From Tupper Research Institute, New England Medical Center, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, and UMass Memorial Health Care, University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, Massachusetts.
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